How to Read the Risk Charts

Back to main page

In the risk charts listed here, risk is expressed as a Hazard Quotient (HQ), which is the ratio of the predicted exposure to a Toxicity Reference Value (TRV), a level of exposure that is anticipated to be without adverse effects.

Each bar on the chart shows a range of estimated risk for a specific exposure scenario based on up to three estimates of exposure—best-case (little exposure), most-probable (the most likely exposure), and worst-case (high exposure). Each estimate is based on a set of assumptions, such as the amount of herbicide residue on food (such as foliage, fruits, and insects) and the amount of food eaten or the amount of runoff into a water body. Factors used to estimate exposure specific to each scenario are listed in the caption for each chart.

ExplanationOfIPCGraphs

 

Hazard Quotients Defined

The Hazard Quotient (HQ) is a measure of risk and is defined as the ratio of the predicted exposure to a Toxicity Reference Value (TRV) for the particular type of wildlife being assessed. Hazard quotients above one indicate that exposure exceeds the “No Effect” level, and wildlife may be at risk of adverse effects. For these exposure scenarios, action should be taken by the land manager to reduce exposure. Hazard quotients between 0.1 and 1.0 suggest that there may be particularly sensitive individuals or species that may be affected. Hazard quotients below 0.1 indicate low levels of risk for the effects that have been studied and are represented by the TRVs.

The best-case risk estimate is at the left end of each bar and assumes the lowest exposure. The most-probable risk estimate (HQ=0.40 in the example above) is located at the point at which the bar changes color from light gray to dark gray, and assumes the most likely exposure. The worst-case risk estimate is at the right end of the bar and assumes worst-case (but possible) exposures.

The background of each risk chart is color-coded, with a HQ in the green zone indicating low risk, an HQ in the yellow zone indicating that anticipated exposures are approaching a level of concern, and an HQ in the red zone indicating that the predicted exposure will exceed the TRV, and adverse effects may result. Because wildlife TRVs are derived from No Observable Adverse Effect Levels (NOAELs), a bar in the red zone does not necessarily mean that harm will occur, but risks that fall in this zone should prompt the land manager to consider steps to mitigate the risk. The further the bar is into the red zone, the more likely it is that adverse effects will occur. The BMPs in Section 3 describe steps that can be taken to reduce risks when risk estimates exceed a level of concern.

The scale of the charts is logarithmic, which allows for the display of values that differ by many factors of ten. The logarithmic scale also visually compresses the bars and skews plots slightly to the right—for example, a HQ value of 0.5 is not exactly in the middle between 0.1 and 1, but slightly to the right of the halfway point.

Back to main page

UA-21813186-1